Monday, March 12, 2012

Jockey Smith Has Tough Derby Decision

New York jockey Mike Smith, who got a good start riding atChicago tracks until three years ago, has an important decision tomake. He can ride either Loblolly Stable's Prairie Bayou or Dalhartin the Kentucky Derby at Louisville, May 1.

Smith has won stakes on both horses. After he won the RebelStakes aboard Dalhart on March 27, he was pretty sure he'd selectDalhart as his Kentucky Derby mount.

The picture changed Saturday when Smith won the $500,000 BlueGrass Stakes against a classier field with Prairie Bayou. He movedfrom eighth and last to win the race by two lengths going away.

That's when the jockey, who leads all riders at Aqueduct,started to handicap his two Kentucky Derby mounts.

"I started to worry about what horse I'm going to ride in theDerby right after I crossed the finish line," Smith said. "IfDalhart wins Saturday's $500,000 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, I'llhave to discuss my Derby mount with (owner) John Ed Anthony and(trainer) Tom Bohannon."

Anthony has the most powerful stable in the United States.Watching his horses brought back memories of the powerful Calumetstable that won stakes almost everywhere, especially at Arlington,Hialeah and Churchill Downs.

If Dalhart wins Saturday, we'll find out what kind of ahandicapper Smith is.

I'll never forget when the great Eddie Arcaro had his choice toride either Devil Diver or Shut Out in the 1942 Kentucky Derby.Arcaro chose Devil Diver which finished out of the money. Shut Out,with Wayne Wright riding, defeated Chicago's hope Alsab with ease.

"It may be a tough decision for me," Smith said. "Dalhart is avery good colt. I never gave it a thought to ride another horse inthe Derby, but Prairie Bayou is getting better and better."

Loblolly Stable has five other 3-year-olds named for the 119thannual Kentucky Derby, but only Marked Tree may run as part of athree-horse entry in the 1 1/4-mile affair.

Marked Tree is far from a bum. He's won $297,870 from sevenstarts, winning four and adding a second, third and fourth. IfMarked Tree runs in the Arkansas Derby and wins or is close, you canlook for him in the Kentucky Derby lineup.

It isn't that easy to get into the Derby lineup, which could bethe 20-horse limit. Officials at Churchill Downs permit horses withthe most graded stakes victories a priority to start when there are20 or more entered.

Anthony, a wealthy Arkansas businessman, isn't worried abouthis horses records in graded races. Dalhart won the Rebel and NashuaStakes. Prairie Bayou won the $500,000 Jim Beam Stakes atKentucky's Turfway Park and the Whirlaway and Count Fleet Stakes atAqueduct.

If Marked Tree can win another stake or get close, I believehe'll also run in the Kentucky Derby. Anthony's two- or three-horseentry will be the public's choice, not higher than 5-2.

After three months of trying to figure the Kentucky Derbyfavorite and odds on the others, it's possible there will be no morechanges. Bruce Karp, who is making the Derby line for the Sport ofKings in Las Vegas, wired the new Derby line.

Karp's line: Dalhart 4-1, Prairie Bayou 4-1, Personable Hope 9-2and Dixieland Heat 15-1. Corby, one of the favorites untilSaturday when he finished seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes, is 15-1.

Union City is 12-1 and my new long-shot threat, Wallenda, whofinished a good second in the Blue Grass, is 15-1.

Among those who have no place in my line and are likelynon-starters Silver of Silver, Devoted Brass, Jack Livingston, Stuka,Storm Tower, Apprentice, Eliza and Gilded Time. Sportsman's Park had a great weekend with approximately $6.5 millionwagered for the two days.

True Affair helped the favorites win the Oaks Saturday. LittleBro Affair shocked the favorite players Sunday with a $59.20 payoff.I loved Stalwars in the feature, but I couldn't find him. Help. Here's a good tip. Make your reservations now at Sportsman's Parkfor Kentucky Derby Day or go hungry. More than 500 fans crowded thedining room Easter Sunday.

I'm sure Derby Day will be another dining room sellout atSportsman's. Other than my own Woulda Could Shoulda book, I'm recommending theDaily Racing Form Manual. It has names and records of hundreds ofowners, trainers and jockeys and records and charts of championhorses of the past. The book, normally $75, is on sale for $35.

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